Top Fantasy QB: Brees or Rodgers?
Here we go again! It’s that time of year when every male in the Delaware County United States start getting their fantasy football teams together. Wives are being ignored and girlfriends are shunned during these last two weeks going into September. I'd imagine that there is more water cooler talk about who has the best fantasy football team than any other topic possible. Yes, that includes Tiger. Yes, that includes the Kardashian's. You may be also thinking that the Phillies are a highly talked about topic at the water cooler however they don't count because those debates are handled through inter-office email. Think about it. Now I am here today to help you with your argument about having that best team. I don't claim to know everything, but I do know everything when it comes to fantasy football. I am voluntarily helping you down the road to fantasy football glory for 2010 and I see no reason why we shouldn't start out with the position we always list first: Quarterbacks.
Now every year there is a debate on who should be the first quarterback taken: Brady vs. Manning in '08. Last year it was Brady vs. Brees. This year it is Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees. These two dynamic QB's finished first and second respectively in 2009 and I expect both of them to be in the top 5 this season. I would say that they would somehow finish first and second in some sort of way but I can't handicap injuries to the core of their offense (Offensive Tackles, Receivers, Running Backs), so I don't want to guarantee anything. Now both have their Pro's and Con's of who should be the #1 ranked QB and here is my personal thought process on this topic.
First off, let me say that both the QB's are STUD's. Both will help contribute to a playoff run and put up at least 20 points per game in league where TD's count for six (for some reason people are counting TD's as 4 points for QB's. I must have missed something at the owner's meeting). When we get down to brass tacks the decision comes down to seeing who has the easier schedule. Now my initial thought looking at the schedule is that New Orleans havethe 6th easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season compared to the Packers 11th easiest strength of schedule. Slightly easier schedule for the Saints. Nothing really to write home about, right? But what about Weeks 14, 15 and 16? This is where leagues are won and lost. Fantasy Football play-offs (Queue the Jim Mora comment). New Orleans plays St. Louis at home, at Baltimore, and at Atlanta. Green Bay plays at Detroit, at New England, then the New York Giants at home. Focus on Saints at Baltimore for week 15 in late December. Drew Brees against Baltimore in 2 games has 3 Touchdowns and 6 interceptions for a QB rating of 63.8, his lowest career QB rating versus any NFL team. This spells disaster fellas. Baltimore is a high-pressure defense that will be at home looking to probably lock up their division. There is no military pre-game pep talk speech that Brees will deliver to overcome that defense.
I can guarantee that hundreds of teams will be knocked out of the playoffs in week 15 because Drew Brees will be in a bad match-up and to waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on a player who will not be able to contribute during the playoffs at a high level just doesn't make sense. Rodgers doesn't go up against any juggernaut defenses in the play-offs so I would rather have Aaron Rodgers. Drew Brees may or may not end up being the best overall QB this year, but his risk for week 15 is simply too high. I know some of you will not agree with me (mostly because you have already drafted Brees) and that's fine, but look at what Brees did week 15 last season. Boom roasted! For those of you who wish to read further, here are some other predictions for QB's this season:
Top Fantasy QB: Matt Schaub. Every year experts try deciding between two obvious choices, however when I get to that fork in the road I am going to make my own path and go straight. Schaub has a chance to be that path.
Sleeper QB of the Season: Chad Henne. Brandon Marshall is going to help Henne dink and dunk all the way down the field. Expect 3700 yards passing and about 23 TD's. He is being drafted as a low end #2 QB right now but will have a coming out party in 2010.
Most Disappointing QB: Tony Romo. Way too much hype and pressure on this guy. Now I am not saying he will have a horrible year, just not the year everyone is expecting.
QB to stay away from: Jay Cutler. Don't draft him as a starter or even a back-up for that matter. His O-line is weak and his best WR is a former defensive back/kick returner. Yes, Johnny Knox is fast but can't run routes. Devin Aromashodu will only be useful if and when they get near the end-zone.
Best QB Value: Joe Flacco. On average he is the 9th QB taken and usually lasting until the 7th round and that is an amazing value. The addition of Anquan Boldin with Derrick Mason will continue to develop Flacco's numbers while allowing you to stock up on solid Running Backs and Wide Receivers early in the draft.
Rookie QB of the Future: Sam Bradford. Mark my words. In the 3 years the St. Louis Rams will start a string of winning seasons due to the development of Sam Bradford. He's accurate, smart and has Pat Shurmur as his offensive coordinator who is a QB guru.
Now every year there is a debate on who should be the first quarterback taken: Brady vs. Manning in '08. Last year it was Brady vs. Brees. This year it is Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees. These two dynamic QB's finished first and second respectively in 2009 and I expect both of them to be in the top 5 this season. I would say that they would somehow finish first and second in some sort of way but I can't handicap injuries to the core of their offense (Offensive Tackles, Receivers, Running Backs), so I don't want to guarantee anything. Now both have their Pro's and Con's of who should be the #1 ranked QB and here is my personal thought process on this topic.
First off, let me say that both the QB's are STUD's. Both will help contribute to a playoff run and put up at least 20 points per game in league where TD's count for six (for some reason people are counting TD's as 4 points for QB's. I must have missed something at the owner's meeting). When we get down to brass tacks the decision comes down to seeing who has the easier schedule. Now my initial thought looking at the schedule is that New Orleans havethe 6th easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season compared to the Packers 11th easiest strength of schedule. Slightly easier schedule for the Saints. Nothing really to write home about, right? But what about Weeks 14, 15 and 16? This is where leagues are won and lost. Fantasy Football play-offs (Queue the Jim Mora comment). New Orleans plays St. Louis at home, at Baltimore, and at Atlanta. Green Bay plays at Detroit, at New England, then the New York Giants at home. Focus on Saints at Baltimore for week 15 in late December. Drew Brees against Baltimore in 2 games has 3 Touchdowns and 6 interceptions for a QB rating of 63.8, his lowest career QB rating versus any NFL team. This spells disaster fellas. Baltimore is a high-pressure defense that will be at home looking to probably lock up their division. There is no military pre-game pep talk speech that Brees will deliver to overcome that defense.
I can guarantee that hundreds of teams will be knocked out of the playoffs in week 15 because Drew Brees will be in a bad match-up and to waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on a player who will not be able to contribute during the playoffs at a high level just doesn't make sense. Rodgers doesn't go up against any juggernaut defenses in the play-offs so I would rather have Aaron Rodgers. Drew Brees may or may not end up being the best overall QB this year, but his risk for week 15 is simply too high. I know some of you will not agree with me (mostly because you have already drafted Brees) and that's fine, but look at what Brees did week 15 last season. Boom roasted! For those of you who wish to read further, here are some other predictions for QB's this season:
Top Fantasy QB: Matt Schaub. Every year experts try deciding between two obvious choices, however when I get to that fork in the road I am going to make my own path and go straight. Schaub has a chance to be that path.
Sleeper QB of the Season: Chad Henne. Brandon Marshall is going to help Henne dink and dunk all the way down the field. Expect 3700 yards passing and about 23 TD's. He is being drafted as a low end #2 QB right now but will have a coming out party in 2010.
Most Disappointing QB: Tony Romo. Way too much hype and pressure on this guy. Now I am not saying he will have a horrible year, just not the year everyone is expecting.
QB to stay away from: Jay Cutler. Don't draft him as a starter or even a back-up for that matter. His O-line is weak and his best WR is a former defensive back/kick returner. Yes, Johnny Knox is fast but can't run routes. Devin Aromashodu will only be useful if and when they get near the end-zone.
Best QB Value: Joe Flacco. On average he is the 9th QB taken and usually lasting until the 7th round and that is an amazing value. The addition of Anquan Boldin with Derrick Mason will continue to develop Flacco's numbers while allowing you to stock up on solid Running Backs and Wide Receivers early in the draft.
Rookie QB of the Future: Sam Bradford. Mark my words. In the 3 years the St. Louis Rams will start a string of winning seasons due to the development of Sam Bradford. He's accurate, smart and has Pat Shurmur as his offensive coordinator who is a QB guru.
posted by Frank Cap at
6:23 PM
1 Comments:
My man. Do work. I hate the boys, but Romo may go big this year.
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