Thursday, August 18, 2011

Fantasy Football Etiquette

Fantasy football etiquette is one of the up and coming topics in fantasy football.  With the explosion in popularity in the past 5 years it is become accustom for many fantasy football enthusiasts to take on anywhere from 3-5 teams.  I’ve heard of some idiots that do close to 10 a year and invest over $1500 in buy-ins.  What?  But the one thing about these over the top fantasy football players is that, they know their p’s and q’s.  So for those of you who do not know their p’s and q’s I will go over the top 10 things not to do during a fantasy football draft.  And if you think I am doing this so that you actually don’t slow me down then you are correct.  I am sick of all of you speed bumps out there taking your sweet time to draft.
Top 10 Don’ts of Fantasy Football
10.  To start it off, don’t be late to the draft.  There are going to be 10-12 guys in the league and you really don’t want to be the guy who shows up late.  These guys took time out of their day to be at a draft so don’t make them sit there and drink more beer than they have to.  The average draft takes 3 hours so don’t be 20 minutes late and then ask for a rules explanation.
9.    Draft a player within the given time limit.  This has to do with being prepared which means when it is on the guy drafting 5th and you are drafting 7th, have 3 guys in mind that you want to draft.  Don’t sit there looking at all the RBs and WRs on the list and then shuffle through your overpriced magazine looking for an answer.  Be ready!
8.  Don’t be a cheap skate and show up without your money to be in the league.  I can tell you this for a fact:  anyone who shows up to my house without the proper amount of money will be given directs to the nearest ATM to remedy the problem.  For those of you who let the commish know ahead of time (day or two) that you will get them the money in the short future after the draft are reprieved.  But for the guy who thinks they are going to full the league into thinking you simply forgot is weak.  Don’t be that guy!
7.  Some leagues do a random draft order ahead of time and some drafts pull their draft slots out of a hat that night.  Whatever the case is, remember not to moan and groan that the “1st pick is the worst” or that “7th place is the hardest” and so on and so forth.  Be a man(or lady) and suck it up.  All you are doing is creating an excuse for the end of the year when you come in last.  You are fooling no one.
6.  After every one of your picks don’t go look to the guy on your right and say, “Yo man, the guy I just drafted is a sleeper this year.”   I feel like screaming, “Oh really? He’s a sleeper?  Why is that?  Cause you went to google and typed in ‘2011 NFL Fantasy football sleepers’ and you clicked on the first link that showed up?  Like every other guy in the league DIDN’T DO THAT!!”  PAAALEASE!! Do not do that!  There is no such thing as a sleeper if EVERYONE knows who they are! I KNOW WHAT JIMMY GRAHAM DID LAST YEAR! I GET IT!
5.  This again comes underneath preparation.  Do not ask the guys around you if you can see their cheat sheet.  Why you ask?  Cause it’s a cheat-sheet.  It’s their’s.  They have notes written on it.  Guys circled that they are targeting.  Just use what you got and if you don’t have the info then you are going to have to do without.
4.  When it is your turn to pick, don’t start off asking if so and so has been draft.  PAY ATTENTION! Don’t go outside for a cigarette every 15 minutes. Stay and PAY ATTENTION.  Look at the board and see who has been taken.  It is your draft and your $100 bucks on the line.  If you don’t pay attention then you will lose.
3.  This no-no had a solid shot at the first overall spot, but then feel to third.  If you on deck to pick and are torn on who to take, don’t turn to your buddy next to you and ask who he should take.  First, it puts him in a bad spot.  He is going to be picking soon and may want to target a particular guy and then you go and ask if you should take him.  If I am him I tell you no and that the guy just broke his leg so that you pass on him.  Second, it’s your team so pick it yourself.
2.  For this next one, if you are sitting next to me I might punch you if you pull this on me.  If it is the 10th round and Felix Jones is somehow slipping down the board, don’t say out loud how you can’t believe he is on the board.  Someone who is too dumb to notice will then go pick him and if I was targeting him next you might get stomped out for blowing it for me.
1.  When everything is all said and done, don’t say to everyone how you love your team.  We know that you love your team cause YOU PICKED THEM!! Obviously you love your team.  How dumb is that?  We ALL love our team. That’s why we picked them!!



Enjoy...

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Fantasy Football Economics?

What makes or breaks a good draft?  Is it the draft position you start with?  Is it your first pick? I’d like to think that it has more to do with what is in my control rather than blaming it on the fact that I had a lousy draft position.  I’d like to think that is has to do with economics.  Not fiscal economics, but fantasy economics.  Every year, we see the top 3 or 4 RBs fly off the board, then it shifts to a WR and then a QB, and then more RBs to finish out the round.   But why is it that we take those QBs in the middle of the first round?  Because some magazine told us we should?
Look at it this way.  A typical league has 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, a TE, Kicker, and defense. Also within this typical league everyone like to have a backup QB, 2 backup RBs, 2 backup WRs and a back up TE and Defense (no one better be drafting a backup kicker unless the league requires it).  A typical league also has 10 teams.  If we multiple that out we get on average 20 QBs taken, 40 RBs taken, 40 WRs taken, 20 TEs, 20 defenses and just 10 kickers.  Now if there are 32 teams that means there are 32 starting RBs and 32 starting QBs.  At this point, if we bring in the economics of fantasy, we see that supply is even for both position, however demand is higher for RBs since more are needed, therefore requiring a higher price point, aka higher value.
Aaron Rodgers’ average draft position (ADP) right now is at 6.  Why is that? Why would you draft Rodgers in the first round when you could wait until the 3rd round to get Phillip Rivers who is projected to score 1 point per game less than Rodgers?  Why not get LeSean McCoy (ADP is 7) with the 6th pick, then get Calvin Johnson, aka Megatron, with the 15th pick (ADP is 16) then get Rivers with the 26th pick (ADP is 26).  If you were to take Rodgers at 6, then you NEED to get a RB with the 15th pick.  At that point you are looking at Frank Gore (ADP  17) who has played a full season in 3 years,  Matt Forte (ADP 20) who is not a #1 RB, or Hillis (ADP 22) who has one year wonder written all over him.  Then at the 26th pick you are looking at Hakeem Nicks (ADP 29th), LeGarrette Blount (ADP 30), or Mike Wallace (ADP 31).
What sounds better? McCoy, Megatron, Rivers or Rodgers, Gore, Nicks.  Personally, I ‘d rather have the trio didn’t miss any games in 2010 due to injury (McCoy was help out week 17 because everything was locked up) rather than the group that missed a combined 9 games due to injury.  What the point of drafting these guys if they aren’t going to be there for you in the playoffs, worst case scenario.
If I were building a franchise I would make Aaron Rodgers a top pick, however, this is fantasy football.  With lower demand for starting QBs because there is usually only 10-12 teams there isn’t a need to go get Rodgers or Vick with a 1st or 2nd rd pick.  Do yourself a favor and wait on drafting a QB until the 4th or 5th round.  Someone like Matt Ryan (ADP 38), Matt Schaub (ADP 43) or Tony Romo (ADP 44) will be there.

You can either take it or leave it.  Every fantasy team owner is different.  I just am sharing how supply/demand factors in for the draft, and not just at the QB position either.  This can be applied to TEs and WRs in the middle of he draft as well.  Good luck


Also, check out this kid Dont'a Hightower (#30) from Alabama.  This kid kind of reminds me of Jerod Mayo.  Can you picture him in Eagle Green? I can...

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

5 Players to Stay Away From

A lot of you newbies are novice players are going to be targeting the big time players from last year or some hot shot rookie that is coming out this season.  Pause:  I am here to help you steer clear and expalin why. DO NOT TOUCH THESE GUYS!

Make sure to watcht the awesome speech by Conan O'Brien at the end. It is worth it...

Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland
There is no discounting what Peyton Hillis did last season.  He was waiver wire gold for all the owners who were lucky enough to pluck him of the wire.  Great. Grand. Wonderful.  But please don’t be that guy (or girl) the goes and takes Hillis in the 2nd or 3rd round and then talks about how they can’t believe that he fell that far.  He is a one year wonder and you are taking ALL of the risk with a guy like that.  Let someone else deal with him this year.  Chances are he is in line for a down year.  Madden curse anyone?
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans
I’m starting to hear Mark Ingram creep up into the talk as a low end #1RB this year because he is on the Saints.  Pump the breaks kids.  He is a legit RB, but before we start giving him that type of expectations let’s give him a year to prove it.  I can tell you this right now, I am not going near a Saint RB.  No Saint RB has eclipsed the 200 carry mark in a season under Sean Payton and I don’t know if that will change now.  He could potentially be a breakout but I wouldn’t touch him early in the draft. If he is there in round 10 I might make him my 4th RB.  That’s about it.
Kyle Orton, QB, Denver
In 13 games, Kyle Orton threw for 3,653 yards and 20 TDs. Impressive stuff.  He lost his job late in the season as Denver started rolling down the hill of losses.  Early indications are that he will be the Denver starting QB since no trade could be worked out.  But buyer beware.  He was on a totally different offense last season.  Josh McDaniels was the head coach in Denver last year and he loved to throw the ball.  This year John Fox is in the house and I envision him with more of a balanced offense.  Knowshon Moreno could be a sure bet for a top 10 rusher this season.
Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay
Last year, Jennings was a top 5 WR when the season ended.  However, through the first handful of games, owners were unhappy with Jennings production due to the fact that Jermichael Finley was an unstoppable force streaking down the seam.  I expect the same to occur this year so DO NOT REACH for Greg Jennings.  He is a solid WR but on average he is being taken with the 21st pick in most fantasy drafts which is late second/early third round type of selection.  With a healthy Finley, it will be difficult for Jennings to produce in a similar fashion this season.  Let him go to the 4th or 5th round to get the correct value from him. Mike Wallace and Reggie Wayne are much better selections that are on average being selected after Jennings.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England
Other than having a memorable draft night that included about a dozen grown men jumping up and down on stage crying and a 3 touchdown performance against Pittsburgh, there really isn’t  much to write home about this guy.  He is a solid guy who plays well against zone coverage, but can’t get open against man coverage.  Vice-versa for Aaron Hernandez.  They are situational TEs that people are overdrafting because they are on the Patriots.  He is on average being drafted in the mid 7th round.  Look for Jimmy Graham or Owen Daniels before this inconsistent TE.  He is more of a #2 TE.


Monday, August 1, 2011

Top 5 QBs: 2011....CAN'T WAIT!

Welcome back to the best fantasy football blog on the Delco Times website (and the only one at that).  It’s been an extra long off-season for obvious reasons, but we are finally back here on the first day of August with a fully functioning football league that will allow us to enjoy another awesome season of fantasy football.  I’m not really going to get too in-depth about the lockout because we’ve been there, done that. 
The first topic I will post about is going to be regarding who I think will be the top 5 QBs for the 2011 season and when I would consider getting each particular QB.
Peyton Manning
 Now before I get the whole neck injury/PUP list argument, please remember that he just got a 5 year deal for about 90 million dollars.  The Colts aren’t going to agree to terms with a QB who they think might have long-term neck issues.  He is the only QB in the league to have finished in the top 5 for fantasy so taking him will basically guarantee you a top 5 QB that you won’t have to worry about.  He will most likely fall into the second round and probably won’t get past pick 14 in any draft.
Michael Vick
The Vick experiment 2.0 will be in full effect in 2011.  This dynamic weapon has the potential for big weeks every Sunday (or sometimes Monday or Thursday).  He will probably, on average, throw for 225 yards per game, run for 40 yards a game and get 2 TDs (one running, one throwing).  He has great potential for throwing up some huge weeks.  The only reason I am placing him behind Manning is because he also has the potential to have some duds.  I’ll always take the consistency.  I would never take him in the first round because of that, but someone will take a chance with their first round pick. He won’t go past pick 10.
Tom Brady
The 2010 MVP is getting hungry.  He hasn’t been a Super Bowl champion since the Eagles choked in Jacksonville.  He wants another ring and his professionalism is going to rub off on the newly acquired Ochocinco to help them get there. Barring an injury to Brady, the Pats are going to roll through the season as usual and Brady will be a big part of it.  30 TDs is a minimum and he might get over 35 TDs.  Tom Brady will go anywhere from pick 24-30.  Don’t fall in love with last year’s numbers.
Aaron Rodgers
With his first Super Bowl ring, Aaron Rodgers is well on his way to having an amazing career.  However, I smell a letdown year coming for the champs.  If you remember correctly, the Packers barely made the play-offs but got hot at the end and then steamrolled.  That’s a great way to win championships, but doesn’t necessarily mean you’re the best team.  The Packers are going to struggle and Rodgers will pay for it.  People are going to overrate Rodgers and take him late 2nd round.  I think that is a high risk after a Super Bowl run.
Drew Brees
Two words:  Contract year.  He is going to put up some serious numbers this year to help remind the Saints how important he is.  Mix that with the fact that the Saints love to throw the ball and we have a recipe for a special year.  If you pick in the middle of the rounds, go get Brees with the 17-19 picks.  You won’t regret it.


Wednesday, July 27, 2011

And on the 132nd day, he said...

LET THERE BE FOOTBALL!!!

The season is right around the corner.  Starting Monday, August 1st I will start posting about some key players to target in your 2011.  I want to give some time for some key players to sign before I rank them(Bradshaw, Rice, DeAngelo, etc...).

However, I will leave you with this funny video.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Top 5 QBs, RBs, and WRs

The NFL draft has come and gone and we are starting to enter into the time of year when we start to look when we can schedule our drafts.  For the past few weeks I have been looking over all of the rookies and their respective situations and I am now ready to rank my top 5 rookies for each position.  I truly think that there will be plenty of intrigue from this draft class and the way they produce on the fantasy football level.  These rankings are strictly based off of a PPR Dynasty league.
Rookie QB’s
1.       Cam Newton- Panthers
With a good running game in place already in Carolina, Cam will be able to keep the defense honest.  He won’t make an impact this year but in maybe 2-3 years, he could be elite. Top 10 pick in rookie only drafts.

2.       Andy Dalton- Cincinnati
With a big time WR in A.J Green already on the team, Dalton could be the one who rises the quickest.  He will probably go somewhere around the 15th-20th pick in rookie drafts.

3.       Christian Ponder- Minnesota
Ponder is in a similar situation as Cam, except his WR corps is better.  I rank him at 3 though because I think Cam has a bigger upside.  He’ll be gone before the 3rd round.

4.       Blaine Gabbert- Jacksonville
Sunshine’s numbers in college were not overly impressive, but he has all the phyiscall tools.  Draft this guy in the 3rd round and throw him on your practice squad.

5.       Jake Locker- Tennessee
With Chris Johnson in the backfield, I don’t see a lot of down the field passing for the first few years.  He is another 2-3 year practice squad type of guy for most dynasties.  Early 3rd round.


Rookie RB’s
1.       Mark Ingram-  New Orleans
I really thought about the #1 RB long and hard but ultimately picked Ingram as he is on a explosive offense.  Ingram should be a top 3 pick in essentially every rookie draft.

2.       Daniel Thomas-  Miami
Thomas is a large back similar to Ronnie Brown and should get 25 touches a game easily.  I only ranked him second to Ingram due to the lack of an explosive offense.  Daniel goes in the top 4.

3.       Ryan Williams-  Arizona
You are going to get a lot of different opinions on who should be ranked 3rd but I believe that Ryan Williams will be the best RB in Arizona when all is said and done.  Top 8 pick.

4.       Mikel Leshore-  Detroit
Jahvid Best is probably the starting RB in Detroit, but Leshoure is going to get a lot of the goalline carries and 4th quarter carries. Best is also injury prone.  Top 10 pick


5.       Shane Vereen-  New England
If this wasn’t a PPR league then Vereen wouldn’t be on this list.  If he can increase his blocking skills he might become the 3 down back New England has been missing.  I’m thinking a top 12 pick.



Rookie WR’S
1.       A.J. Green-  Cincinnati
In almost every fantasy draft, Green will be the #1 or #2 pick.  He has Larry Fitzgerald type skills and when that opportunity arises you need to pounce on it.

2.       Julio Jones-  Atlanta
Mr. Jones will certainly have a better rookie year then Green, but over the long haul I see Jones as a second fiddle to Green.  Still going to be a top 4 pick in all rookie drafts.

3.       Torrey Smith-  Baltimore
I know some people will come at me saying that Little is the better WR than Smith, but I don’t see it.  Little only has one true year as a WR under his belt after converting to a RB. He doesn’t know the routes yet. Smith does. Smith goes in the top 12.

4.       Jon Baldwin- Kansas City
As I big WR on the outside, he should gobble up targets inside the red zone.  Bowe will take away from a lot of the coverage.  Most underrated WR goes inside the top 12.

5.       Greg Little-  Cleveland
Now I am not an idiot and would take Little if he fell far enough.  He is as raw as they come but is just as athletic.  Someone will over value him and take him in the top 10 when he is really a top 15 type draft pick.


I have a rookie draft coming up this weekend and am very excited about the possible outcomes.  I have the 10th, 11th, 16th and 30th picks in the draft.  I am in a good situation with my team so I can be a little aggressive if the time calls for it.  Otherwise I am taking the best player available at each pick.

I’ll give a breakdown of our draft after it’s over.


Thursday, April 28, 2011

On the Clock: Pittsburgh Steelers

For the next few hours leading up to the draft, I am going to assume the role of each NFL general manager and make draft picks based upon need, scheme, and in some cases wants.  I will not make any trades throughout this process but will chime in when I think one is needed.  Each day leading up to the draft I will make a pick and summarize my thought process of why certain teams will go a particular way.  So put this blog in your favorites section and check back daily to see who I will select for each team.  With the 31st pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select…


Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor (6’3” 310 lbs)


"Babyface"

We nailed our first round pick last year with a stud interior lineman and we nail it again with Watkins.  He isn’t the type of player that attracts attention like the Cam Newton’s of the world and you might even forget his name by this time next week, but he will be a pro bowl player for multiple years.

“Babyface” is a mauler who is going to get in your face and drive you back.  Baylor has obviously produced some impressive lineman this year, offensively and defensively, and Watkins will anchor it.  The player who comes to mind that is similar to “Babyface” is Logan Mankins.  Same type of underrated ability coming out of college that people quickly become familiar with.

The only two players we are looking at in the 2ndround are Chimdi Chekwa and Marcus Gilchrist.  Both are undersized, fast corners who could possibly replace Ike Taylor.  I’m going to go get the best corner available, but that doesn’t mean I won’t look to trade back and get some extra picks.

Green Bay is on the clock…