Fantasy Football Economics?

What makes or breaks a good draft?  Is it the draft position you start with?  Is it your first pick? I’d like to think that it has more to do with what is in my control rather than blaming it on the fact that I had a lousy draft position.  I’d like to think that is has to do with economics.  Not fiscal economics, but fantasy economics.  Every year, we see the top 3 or 4 RBs fly off the board, then it shifts to a WR and then a QB, and then more RBs to finish out the round.   But why is it that we take those QBs in the middle of the first round?  Because some magazine told us we should?

Look at it this way.  A typical league has 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, a TE, Kicker, and defense. Also within this typical league everyone like to have a backup QB, 2 backup RBs, 2 backup WRs and a back up TE and Defense (no one better be drafting a backup kicker unless the league requires it).  A typical league also has 10 teams.  If we multiple that out we get on average 20 QBs taken, 40 RBs taken, 40 WRs taken, 20 TEs, 20 defenses and just 10 kickers.  Now if there are 32 teams that means there are 32 starting RBs and 32 starting QBs.  At this point, if we bring in the economics of fantasy, we see that supply is even for both position, however demand is higher for RBs since more are needed, therefore requiring a higher price point, aka higher value.

Aaron Rodgers’ average draft position (ADP) right now is at 6.  Why is that? Why would you draft Rodgers in the first round when you could wait until the 3^rd round to get Phillip Rivers who is projected to score 1 point per game less than Rodgers?  Why not get LeSean McCoy (ADP is 7) with the 6^th pick, then get Calvin Johnson, aka Megatron, with the 15^th pick (ADP is 16) then get Rivers with the 26^th pick (ADP is 26).  If you were to take Rodgers at 6, then you NEED to get a RB with the 15^th pick.  At that point you are looking at Frank Gore (ADP  17) who has played a full season in 3 years,  Matt Forte (ADP 20) who is not a #1 RB, or Hillis (ADP 22) who has one year wonder written all over him.  Then at the 26^th pick you are looking at Hakeem Nicks (ADP 29^th), LeGarrette Blount (ADP 30), or Mike Wallace (ADP 31).

What sounds better? McCoy, Megatron, Rivers or Rodgers, Gore, Nicks.  Personally, I ‘d rather have the trio didn’t miss any games in 2010 due to injury (McCoy was help out week 17 because everything was locked up) rather than the group that missed a combined 9 games due to injury.  What the point of drafting these guys if they aren’t going to be there for you in the playoffs, worst case scenario.

If I were building a franchise I would make Aaron Rodgers a top pick, however, this is fantasy football.  With lower demand for starting QBs because there is usually only 10-12 teams there isn’t a need to go get Rodgers or Vick with a 1^st or 2^nd rd pick.  Do yourself a favor and wait on drafting a QB until the 4^th or 5^th round.  Someone like Matt Ryan (ADP 38), Matt Schaub (ADP 43) or Tony Romo (ADP 44) will be there.

You can either take it or leave it.  Every fantasy team owner is different.  I just am sharing how supply/demand factors in for the draft, and not just at the QB position either.  This can be applied to TEs and WRs in the middle of he draft as well.  Good luck


Also, check out this kid Dont'a Hightower (#30) from Alabama.  This kid kind of reminds me of Jerod Mayo.  Can you picture him in Eagle Green? I can...