5 Bold Predictions of the Scouting Combine

Every year, something weird/awesome/impressive/disappointing happens at the NFL Combine. A few years ago Calvin Johnson ran a 40 yard dash in 4.35 seconds in someone else’s shoes.  Dan Marino scored a 14 on the Wonderlic Test and then went on to have a hall of fame career. Most recently, Tim Tebow tied the record for the highest vertical leap for a QB at 38.5 inches.  We have seen offensive lineman blow away the field like Bruce Campbell did last year and then we watched him fall in the 2010 NFL Draft to the 4^th round. We also saw Emmitt Smith run a 4.8 40 yard dash at his college combine and still went on to be the leading NFL rusher of all-time. So basically the draft can mean all or nothing.  With that said, here are some of my bold predictions for the combine this week.

1.        Marcus Cannon (TCU) will have the best all-around workout of any offensive lineman.  At, 6’6” 250 lbs, he is a big man but I saw him play and I am expecting him to be motivated to impress the scouts since his has not been hearing his name as one of the top O-lineman.  Think of him as Shawn Andrews without the mental issues.

2.       Stud defensive tackle Nick Fairley (Auburn) will hurt his draft stock with a poor combine showing.  Rumors of Fairley having a bad attitude have been talked about and his work ethic was questioned in college.  He might not have worked out as hard as he needed to over the past couple weeks.  It could cost him a few spots in the draft, which ultimately could be a 10 million dollars guaranteed.

3.       Cam Newton (Auburn) will impress in his interviews despite the fact that most people expect him project himself as a “me” guy.  Combined with is amazing combine performance with the drills and I think he could shoot himself into a top 3 pick.

4.       Wide Receiver Jon Baldwin (Pitt) will have scouts DROOLING at the end of the day.  He is 6’5” 230 lbs.  He will probably have a 40 yard dash right around 4.45, 38 inch vertical, and will be able to manage himself through the interview process.  Baldwin has a real shot to get him self into the end of the first round as long as he doesn’t throw his quarterbacks in college under the bus for the reason for average college stats.

5.       Jacquizz Rodgers (Oregon State) is easily going to have the best combine performance of any of RB.  He is only 5’7” 195 lbs but will turn heads.  Guys like Darren Sproles, DeSean Jackson, and Dexter McCluster have made it possible for Rodgers to have scouts actually pay attention to the smaller players.

Five Sleepers to Watch

Cecil Shorts, WR, 6’2” 210 LBS (Mount Union)

Andy Dalton, QB, 6’3” 220 LBS (TCU)

Greg Salas, WR, 6’2” 220 LBS (Hawaii)

Kenrick Ellis, DT, 6’5” 336 LBS (Hampton)

Ben Ijalana, OL 6’4” 320 LBS (Villanova)

Early Fantasy Look: Wide Recievers

A.J. Green, Georgia

The stud from Georgia is being touted as the second best WR prospect to come out since Randy Moss (Calvin Johnson being the only WR rated higher since Moss). It might be possible but I don’t know if he expectations are as high as Larry Fitzgerald’s was when he was drafted.  With that said, he is a legit beast.  6’4” 210 lbs qualifies him with ideal WR measurements.  His 40 yard dash time will be the biggest things scouts look at when the combine comes around (doesn’t make sense since there is never a point in a game when a WR runs 40 yards without looking behind himself or getting bumped by a CB).  If it is sub 4.5 then he will be a top 5 pick.  If it is above 4.5 then he may fall to 6-8.  Sub 4.4 and he might become the #1 overall pick.  Between his route running, knowledge, and hands there is no doubt he will be a dominant WR in the NFL

Seasonal leagues should not be targeting AJ Green any earlier than the 11^th or 12^th round.  Anything before that is a reach.  He is going to be going to a bad team with a bad QB and it will take time about 20 games before he becomes a dominant WR at the NFL level.  Keeper league can afford to draft him a little bit earlier. Maybe the 5^th or 6^th round, as he is a definite keeper after his rookie season.  Rookie only drafts should consider him to be either the first or second pick overall.  If you need WR help, take Green first.  If you are sitting with the #1 overall pick in the rookie draft and need a RB, then Ingram is your guy.

Julio Jones, Alabama

Roll Tide.  It’s a great college greeting/goodbye/compliment/insult to opposing teams and Julio Jones was definition of “Roll Tide”.  He was a leader on and off the field.  Team Captain.  He can block like Hines Ward and get open like Austin Miles.  He suffered in a run first offense this season but some of his catches were simply jaw dropping.  He is easily going to be the 2^nd WR taken in the draft and will go somewhere between the 12^th thru 20^th pick.   He won’t be Larry Fitz or Andre Johnson in terms of production, but he will probably be similar to Jeremy Maclin or Hakeem Nicks.

Seasonal leagues may not want to touch Julio until the 13^th round but keeper leagues can reach in the 6^th round and stash a potential keeper for the future.  Rookie only drafts should consider Julio anywhere from the 3-5 range as he may end up on a legitimately good team with a solid QB situation.  If he ends up in St. Louis where many people predict he will, Sam Bradford will become a very attractive QB option. I’d be shocked if he got past 16 with Jacksonville.

Torrey Smith, Maryland

Crabcakes and football, that’s what Maryland does!!  Smith is NOT your next Heyward-Bey.  He can actually catch passes and does NOT drop them.  He is as close to Jeremy Maclin as it gets.  Quick off the line, great hands, and good route running.  He would have been a bigger name if he would have had a decent QB in college.  He should make a name for himself at the combine.  Average size at 6 foot makes it difficult for him to get into the first round.  He has second round written all over him unless he has a 4.4 time.

Torrey won’t be drafted in any seasonal leagues unless:  a) you have a man crush on him, b) you pick him up as a keeper, or c) you put it on auto draft and rate WR’s as a priority in which case you should be fined $100 for auto-drafting your team. Keeper leagues could draft him with a flier pick in the late rounds.  He will be a little known player to most teams.  Rookie only drafts will be interesting.  I envision him going around the 10-14 area.  He has the ability to be a bye week replacement in 2 years and a legit fantasy starter by his 3^rd season.



Early Fantasy Look: Running Backs

Here is a severely early preview of how the top prospective rookies look.  The draft is at the end of April but it is still a good idea to look at what these guys might become.  I'm going to look at the RBs first as they are usually able to produce more in their rookie season the most other positions. Have at it hoss.

Mark Ingram

The former Heisman Trophy winner is undoubtedly going to be the first running back taken in the draft. I currently have him going to the New York Giants at #19 but I foresee him moving up in my next mock draft.  He has solid measurements ( 5'10" 212lbs) and can hide behind a large offensive line very well.  He initiates contact and can easily sustain 20 plus touches per game.  He won't be a reception monster, so he is not appealing in PPR leagues.  He will be a great fit in Washington (10th pick), Miami (15th), and with the New York Giants (19th).

For seasonal leagues he will probably get drafted anywhere between the 5th and 7th rounds.  Anything earlier than that just shows that the owner that drafts him has a man crush on him.  See Ryan Matthews last year.  Keeper leagues can take the risk to draft him in the 3rd or 4th round due to his ability to be a solid keeper for the next 6 years.  In rookie only drafts he will be a guaranteed top 3 pick depending on need and strategy.

Mikel LeShoure

If Mikel LeShoure was at a top 15 school we would have heard about him a lot more during the season. Fortunately enough for Mikel LeShoure, this is the 21st century and up and coming players are talked about more than ever thanks to the Internet.  He's big, strong, and has great agility.  His lateral movement allows him to juke tacklers that are coming in on an angle and he is strong enough to lower his pads and go boom.  Another great thing about Mikel is his receiving ability.  Many draft guru's are comparing him to Rashard Mendenhall simply because of the fact they both went to Illinois.  He is a better comparison to Ronnie Brown.  Ronnie is an excellent pass catcher out of the back field with amazing agility.  Injuries slowed Ronnie up significantly, but if Mikel can stay healthy the sky is the limit. 

I have Mikel has a second round pick and the only reason is because of his maturity.  Apparently he got into a fight with a teammate in which he got his jaw broken.  This is a slight indication that Mikel LeShoure can't fight, (ba-da bump) Thank you I'll be here all week.  Teams might get scared of that but if he blows scouts away at the combine with his 6'1", 230 lb frame, he could sneak into the end of round 1.

Seasonal leagues will need to monitor the situation that Mikel falls into.  He has starting talent, but if he gets stuck in a crowded backfield, he may not get the production you will want.  Right now I'd consider him a 8th-10th round type of player. Keeper leagues should look to get him around the 6th round as he will probably be a starting RB where ever he goes, maybe even by the end of the season. I'd look to grab Mikel around pick 5, again depending on his situation.

Ryan Williams

Before the season started, I was raving about Ryan Williams. I thought he was going to have a legitimate shot at the Heisman but he simply couldn't stay healthy.  Then he got stuck splitting carries and just never made the impact he was looking for.  His is a slightly undersized player at 5'10, 200 lbs, but players with top end speed and agility will always be a focal point on the offense.  He is the mold on DeAngelo Williams and his overall fantasy value will depend on his situation.  I can see a team like Green Bay or New England taking him in the 2nd round.  After his combine I'll have a better expectation of where he will go.

Temper your expectations for seasonal leagues.  He is mostly going to be a player who gets 5-10 touches a game max his rookie year, a la Felix Jones.  He is mostly a good draft pick for keeper leagues in the 8-10 round range and a probable top 5 pick for a team looking to add youth to their RB depth.