Top Rookie Running Backs for 2010

Who’s your daddy and what does he do? Well I’ll tell you Mr. John Kimble. My daddy is Jahvid Best “There is” and he is the engine that makes my fantasy team run. Take that to the bank people. Jahvid Best will be the best rookie running back in fantasy football this year. That is why I am scooping him up in every fantasy draft I weasel myself into (5 and counting at this point for those of you keeping track at home). He’s got track star speed, Barry Sanders type moves (yeah I said it despite how irresponsible that is) and great hands. In point per reception leagues, this guy is going to be a vulture. In 3 plus quarters this pre-season he has 129 yards rushing on 15 carries and 29 yards receiving with 4 catches. We are talking about 18 points per game in PPR leagues with another quarter to play. Now I can hear the cynics saying he plays for Detroit and that Detroit never makes a good pick, he got hurt last year and yadda yadda yadda. But this isn’t the Detroit Lions we are used to. Matt Millen made all of those horrible picks in the early decade. Not this administration. This team has a strategy. This team has a freakishly awesome wide receiver, talented young quarterback and will play 9 of his 16 games in a dome where the turf will make him even faster! And the injury thing? How many of you know-it-all's were saying that Adrian Peterson was injury prone coming out of college? Every professional Running Back gets hurt!! So take it or leave it but at the end of the season, Best will be the top rookie RB. Here are some of my thoughts on the other rookie RBs:

Ryan Matthews, San Diego: I’m liking this guy a lot, but not loving him. I just think that too many fantasy geeks are envisioning him to do what LT did while at San Diego. Keep in mind that LT is a stone cold lock for the hall of fame. He did things on the field that no one can do, so it is unfair to set those expectations for Matthews. They are portraying this guy to be a top flight RB but it will take time. That’s why I think so many of you geeks are taking him early. You are expecting  him to be LT when he just isn’t. Personally, I'm not taking him until the late 3rd or early 4th round in standard leagues and probably a little earlier in keeper leagues. Expect him to go within the top 3 in rookie only drafts.

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo: This Clemson product would have been higher on my list if he could have gotten to a team that had more of a foundation. Truth be told the Bills will be picking in the top 5 next year and I am guessing they will be going after Jake Locker if he doesn’t follow his baseball career, but I digress. Spiller is a cornerstone that this organization needs. His fantasy football stock this year should be kept in check due to his poor offensive line and crowded backfield but keeper leagues should absolutely look to go after this guy early. He was the second overall pick in my rookie only draft and will continue to be a top 4 pick in all rookie only drafts. Look for him to go around the 8th round in standard leagues.

Montario Hardesty, Cleveland: I guess the guy I would closest relate this guy to is Correll Buckhalter. Now, if I am talking in the sense of being a pure football fan, then yes, I would love to have this guy on my team. He would be a jack of all trades just as Correll was with the Eagles and now the Broncos. But fantasy wise he won’t ever be much than a bye-week fill-in due to his injury risk. He is battling Jerome Harrison for carries and has already missed most of the pre-season with another knee injury. He had 3 major knee injuries in college and the wear and tear will add up quicker than usual on this guy. Cleveland has a poor QB situation and no passing game to speak of. Teams are going to crowd the box and stop the run and that won’t be good for the Harrison/Hardety owners of the world. If you must, only draft Hardesty if you draft Harrison. That’s the only way it makes sense to me. Dynasty league owners can take him anywhere around picks 12-15.

Top Fantasy QB: Brees or Rodgers?

Here we go again! It’s that time of year when every male in the Delaware County United States start getting their fantasy football teams together. Wives are being ignored and girlfriends are shunned during these last two weeks going into September. I'd imagine that there is more water cooler talk about who has the best fantasy football team than any other topic possible. Yes, that includes Tiger. Yes, that includes the Kardashian's. You may be also thinking that the Phillies are a highly talked about topic at the water cooler however they don't count because those debates are handled through inter-office email. Think about it. Now I am here today to help you with your argument about having that best team. I don't claim to know everything, but I do know everything when it comes to fantasy football. I am voluntarily helping you down the road to fantasy football glory for 2010 and I see no reason why we shouldn't start out with the position we always list first: Quarterbacks.

Now every year there is a debate on who should be the first quarterback taken: Brady vs. Manning in '08. Last year it was Brady vs. Brees. This year it is Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees. These two dynamic QB's finished first and second respectively in 2009 and I expect both of them to be in the top 5 this season. I would say that they would somehow finish first and second in some sort of way but I can't handicap injuries to the core of their offense (Offensive Tackles, Receivers, Running Backs), so I don't want to guarantee anything. Now both have their Pro's and Con's of who should be the #1 ranked QB and here is my personal thought process on this topic.

First off, let me say that both the QB's are STUD's. Both will help contribute to a playoff run and put up at least 20 points per game in league where TD's count for six (for some reason people are counting TD's as 4 points for QB's. I must have missed something at the owner's meeting). When we get down to brass tacks the decision comes down to seeing who has the easier schedule. Now my initial thought looking at the schedule is that New Orleans havethe 6th easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season compared to the Packers 11th easiest strength of schedule. Slightly easier schedule for the Saints. Nothing really to write home about, right? But what about Weeks 14, 15 and 16? This is where leagues are won and lost. Fantasy Football play-offs (Queue the Jim Mora comment). New Orleans plays St. Louis at home, at Baltimore, and at Atlanta. Green Bay plays at Detroit, at New England, then the New York Giants at home. Focus on Saints at Baltimore for week 15 in late December. Drew Brees against Baltimore in 2 games has 3 Touchdowns and 6 interceptions for a QB rating of 63.8, his lowest career QB rating versus any NFL team. This spells disaster fellas. Baltimore is a high-pressure defense that will be at home looking to probably lock up their division. There is no military pre-game pep talk speech that Brees will deliver to overcome that defense.

I can guarantee that hundreds of teams will be knocked out of the playoffs in week 15 because Drew Brees will be in a bad match-up and to waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on a player who will not be able to contribute during the playoffs at a high level just doesn't make sense. Rodgers doesn't go up against any juggernaut defenses in the play-offs so I would rather have Aaron Rodgers. Drew Brees may or may not end up being the best overall QB this year, but his risk for week 15 is simply too high. I know some of you will not agree with me (mostly because you have already drafted Brees) and that's fine, but look at what Brees did week 15 last season. Boom roasted! For those of you who wish to read further, here are some other predictions for QB's this season:

Top Fantasy QB: Matt Schaub. Every year experts try deciding between two obvious choices, however when I get to that fork in the road I am going to make my own path and go straight. Schaub has a chance to be that path.

Sleeper QB of the Season: Chad Henne. Brandon Marshall is going to help Henne dink and dunk all the way down the field. Expect 3700 yards passing and about 23 TD's. He is being drafted as a low end #2 QB right now but will have a coming out party in 2010.

Most Disappointing QB: Tony Romo. Way too much hype and pressure on this guy. Now I am not saying he will have a horrible year, just not the year everyone is expecting.

QB to stay away from: Jay Cutler. Don't draft him as a starter or even a back-up for that matter. His O-line is weak and his best WR is a former defensive back/kick returner. Yes, Johnny Knox is fast but can't run routes. Devin Aromashodu will only be useful if and when they get near the end-zone.

Best QB Value: Joe Flacco. On average he is the 9th QB taken and usually lasting until the 7th round and that is an amazing value. The addition of Anquan Boldin with Derrick Mason will continue to develop Flacco's numbers while allowing you to stock up on solid Running Backs and Wide Receivers early in the draft.

Rookie QB of the Future:  Sam Bradford.  Mark my words.  In the 3 years the St. Louis Rams will start a string of winning seasons due to the development of Sam Bradford.  He's accurate, smart and has Pat Shurmur as his offensive coordinator who is a QB guru.